The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, rapidly emerged and evolved as one of the most formidable global health crises in recent history. The intricacy of the virus’s genetic makeup, transmission dynamics, and host susceptibility underscored the complexity of the threat it posed. From flooded hospitals, boarded up businesses, and crippling stock markets, this novel virus profoundly impacted societies, economies, and healthcare systems worldwide. Global lockdowns were implemented as an extreme attempt to stop the spread of the virus across both local and international borders. However, such efforts proved too little too late and the virus quickly evolved. Since its identification in late 2019, the virus has spread relentlessly, prompting unprecedented public health measures and societal adaptations; some of which are still noticeable to this day. In terms of understanding the complex nature of the COVID 19 virus and its lasting implications, one can analyze trends in human mobility to gain an understanding as to how and why this virus was able to spread as ferociously as it did.
When looking at human mobility in relation to the COVID 19 pandemic, it becomes a widely popular interest to investigate the trends in mobility during the implementation of lockdowns across the world and understand whether they were effective in stopping the spread of the novel coronavirus. From first thought, it seems reasonable to assume that businesses being closed and travel being severely restricted would ultimately result in less individuals being out and about. However, based on upon one research study conducted by George Thiruvathukal et al., this does not appear to be the case. In this study, researchers used computer analyzing software and publicly available webcams to analyze trends in human movement. These webcams included traffic cameras, tourist attractions, and other widely visited places across the world. The computer imaging software was taking these images and determining the estimated number of people within the image. Researchers wanted to know whether the implementation of lockdowns really altered the numbers they were seeing in terms of people on the road and at these designated locations. What researchers found was ultimately labeled as inconclusive. Overall, the number of people observed on the road and at these various other locations did not drastically change enough to be considered an effect of implementing a lockdown. So, with this answer, it seems reasonable to conclude that the lockdown did not influence mobility. And while this may be true, it is also important to recognize an important flaw in this study. Using publicly available cameras sustains ethical and moral grounds but does not take into consideration that these cameras are naturally going to be at places that experience high traffic. Lockdown or not, people still need to drive, people still need to buy groceries, and people are still going to utilize public walking/biking trails. While not all, these are some of the most commonly accessed cameras discussed in the paper. So, with that being said, the usage of these cameras cannot be relied on as a sole determining factor in whether the lockdown had significant effects on mobility. While this research study did not provide adequate insight to pull a conclusion on the trends of mobility during the COVID 19 lockdowns, it does provide a rough introduction into the matter and provides a magnitude of considerations.
Another study that was conducted focusing on the trends of mobility during the COVID 19 pandemic lockdowns took a different approach to try and understand human behavior. This study, published in the Nature Reviews Physics Journal and conducted by Laura Alessandretti et al., instead utilized consumer phone data to analyze trends in mobility. Researchers in this study utilized aggregated GPS data provided from phone navigation systems, such as Google and Apple to observe the amount of long-distance travel and short-distance interactions amongst individuals within four cities in China and fifty-two other countries. Google and Apple both anonymize this data, simply providing a “dot” more or less of the geographical location of the user and nothing more. Similar to the prior study, trends in mobility were compared from both a period outside of the lockdowns and during the lockdowns. What researchers found in this study was that lockdowns did in fact reduce overall contact and mobility. However, what researchers also found was that post-lockdown increases in mobility did not correspond to an increase in contact and interaction amongst individuals. The article goes on to reason that because mobility and interaction do not have a cause-and-effect relationship, that other pharmacological and social distancing measures, including contact tracing, would be equally as effective as a lockdown in terms of spread of the disease. Overall, this study has intriguing and offered rather unexpecting results that could very easily be utilized in future pandemic modeling and policy making. This study also underscores the need for caution in assuming specific relationships between travel and human-to-human interaction, further emphasizing the importance of considering various factors in high stakes situations.
The COVID 19 pandemic proved to be a unique and intriguing learning experience for anyone that experienced it. Due to its rapid emergence and quick spread around the globe, many researchers were interested in the logistical aspect of human mobility as a determining factor in its rapid evolution. By looking at two different studies, it was observed that restrictions to mobility, in this instance lockdowns, were actually not as effective as they were hoped to be and contributed little to the spread of the virus. Researchers found that people visited certain areas just as much regardless of any lockdown that was in place and that human-to-human interaction was not influenced at all by such lockdowns either. Instead, what one article claims is that simple social distancing measures and taking necessary precautions while in public prove the most effective at stopping the spread of the virus, and not just lockdowns. Thankfully, however, due to the work done by these researchers, we now have a better understanding of human mobility trends and will be better prepared in the future if society encounters another unfortunate pandemic. While the results of these studies did prove to be shocking and unexpected, the research is vital to future efforts.
References
1. Alessandretti, Laura. “What human mobility data tell us about covid-19 spread.” Nature Reviews Physics, vol. 4, no. 1, 2021, pp. 12–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-021-00407-1.
2. Allcroft, Shane; Metwaly, Mohammed; Berg, Zachery; Ghodgaonkar, Isha; Bordwell, Fischer, Zhao, XinXin; Liu, Xinglei; Xu, Jiahao; Chakraborty, Subhankar; Banna, Vishnu; Chinnakotla, Akhil; Goel, Abhinav; Tung, Caleb; Kao, Gore; Zakharov, Wei; Shoham, David A.; Thiruvathukal, George K.; and Lu, Yung-Hsiang."Observing Human Mobility Internationally During COVID-19". IEEE Computer, 2023. Retrieved from Loyola eCommons, Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works..
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